Senior Housing Forecast First Half 2018

According to a new 2018 senior housing report from real estate services company Marcus & Millichap, the senior housing market, the market for assisted living and independent living properties will get a boost from the recent tax code changes taking effect in 2018. The changes driving the trend are fewer tax benefits for aging home owners and an expanded senior housing buyers pool due to the strong economic outlook.

Key Findings

• Home ownership for the 75 and above age segment has fallen for the last 4 years.
• 75 and above home ownership peaked at 80% in 2012 and 2013 and was 76.8% at the end of 2017.
• Benefits from itemizing housing and mortgage related expenses now fall under new tax rules that could motivate seniors to sell homes and relocate to smaller senior housing communities.
• REITs, private capital groups and owner-operators are investing more in senior housing ventures.
• Mainstream awareness of senior housing is also contributing to a boost in buyer demand.

2018 Seniors Housing Market Forecasts

• Independent Living – Occupancy DOWN 20 basis points

Not much change in this segment which is historically stable.

• Assisted Living – Occupancy DOWN 50 basis points

Mostly due to increased inventory from elevated property construction deliveries.

• Skilled Nursing Facilities – Occupancy DOWN 80 basis points

Mostly due to rising healthcare costs and the changes in Medicaid and Medicare driving more facilities to focus on short term stays.

• Continuing Care Retirement Communities – Occupancy UP 30 basis points

This segment will be the only to post an increase in occupancy. Rent growth remains strong.

Top 10 Senior Housing Construction Markets (Q1 2018)

Source: NIC MAP®Data Service